65/100 Health Score Example
This worked example shows how ESP-GUARDX can calculate a warning-range Health Score when several moderate degradation mechanisms are developing at the same time. The example ends at 62.9/100, which appears on the dashboard as a warning-level score near 65.
The point of the example is not that the ESP has already failed. Production can still be continuing, but the combined evidence shows that the system is moving away from healthy operation.
Calculation Model
S_health = 100 - D_total
D_total = sum(W_d * R_d)
R_d = sum(S_i * C_i * P_i * E_i)
Where severity, confidence, persistence, and exclusion logic are calculated per fault indicator, then weighted by equipment domain.
Domain Weights
| Domain | Weight |
|---|---|
| Surface Equipment / VSD | 10% |
| Power Quality | 10% |
| Cable / Surface Connection | 10% |
| Motor | 15% |
| Seal Section | 15% |
| Pump | 20% |
| Intake / Gas Handling | 10% |
| Fluid / Reservoir | 10% |
Multi-Domain Risk Calculation
Each individual risk value is calculated as Severity x Confidence x Persistence. Domain total rows then apply the domain weighting factor to convert the summed domain risk into its final contribution to D_total.
| Domain | Problem | Sev. | Conf. | Persist. | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surface | Mild VSD thermal stress | 45 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 16.9 |
| Surface | Minor inverter ringing | 35 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 9.8 |
| Surface Total | Domain contribution: 26.7 x 10% | 2.7 | |||
| Power | Moderate harmonic heating | 50 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 24.0 |
| Power Total | Domain contribution: 24.0 x 10% | 2.4 | |||
| Cable | Early cable insulation aging | 40 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 13.0 |
| Cable Total | Domain contribution: 13.0 x 10% | 1.3 | |||
| Motor | Current imbalance | 50 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 29.8 |
| Motor | Mild rotor asymmetry | 40 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 16.8 |
| Motor Total | Domain contribution: 46.6 x 15% | 7.0 | |||
| Seal | Early thrust-bearing wear | 55 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 30.8 |
| Seal | Minor oil contamination | 35 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 10.5 |
| Seal Total | Domain contribution: 41.3 x 15% | 6.2 | |||
| Pump | Moderate scaling | 60 | 0.85 | 0.75 | 38.3 |
| Pump | Efficiency degradation | 50 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 31.5 |
| Pump Total | Domain contribution: 69.8 x 20% | 14.0 | |||
| Intake | Intermittent gas lock | 45 | 0.85 | 0.50 | 19.1 |
| Intake Total | Domain contribution: 19.1 x 10% | 1.9 | |||
| Fluid | Early asphaltene deposition | 40 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 15.6 |
| Fluid Total | Domain contribution: 15.6 x 10% | 1.6 |
Final Weighted Contributions
| Domain | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|
| Surface | 2.7 |
| Power | 2.4 |
| Cable | 1.3 |
| Motor | 7.0 |
| Seal | 6.2 |
| Pump | 14.0 |
| Intake | 1.9 |
| Fluid | 1.6 |
D_total = 37.1
S_health = 100 - 37.1
S_health = 62.9
Dashboard Interpretation
| Item | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Status | Warning - developing degradation |
| Dashboard score | 62.9 / 100 |
| Main contributors | Pump scaling and efficiency loss, seal thrust-bearing wear, motor imbalance, moderate harmonic stress, early gas interference |
Recommended Guard X Actions
- Reduce operating frequency slightly toward BEP.
- Monitor seal-section temperature trend.
- Review harmonic filter and VSD switching behavior.
- Schedule fluid treatment for scaling or asphaltene buildup.
- Monitor gas-lock recurrence frequency.
Operational Meaning
This is a realistic predictive-maintenance operating condition. The ESP system is still running and production can continue, but ESP-GUARDX has detected several degradation mechanisms developing simultaneously. This is the operating region where predictive AI has the most value, because intervention can occur before catastrophic failure, unplanned shutdown, or an expensive workover.