Health Score Calculation Logic

The ESP-GUARDX Health Score is an AI-based predictive maintenance index for the complete ESP system. It combines surface power behavior, VSD stress, transformer and cable condition, motor diagnostics, seal behavior, pump hydraulics, intake/gas behavior, and fluid/reservoir trends into one live value from 0 to 100.

Unlike a normal alarm counter, the score is not only asking whether one threshold has tripped. It evaluates how serious each developing condition is, how confident the AI diagnosis is, how long the condition has persisted, and whether physical exclusion logic rules out competing diagnoses.

Core Equation

S_health = 100 - D_total

D_total = sum(W_d * R_d)

Term	Meaning
`S_health`	Final ESP Health Score
`D_total`	Total weighted degradation
`W_d`	Domain weighting factor
`R_d`	Risk score of each domain

Domain Risk Equation

R_d = sum(S_i * C_i * P_i * E_i)

Term	Meaning
`S_i`	Severity of the fault or abnormal condition
`C_i`	AI confidence level for that diagnosis
`P_i`	Persistence factor
`E_i`	Exclusion logic factor

Calculation Elements

Severity measures how serious the abnormality is right now. It is derived from the magnitude of deviation from the healthy operating baseline.

Confidence measures how certain the AI engine is about the diagnosis. It is produced from multi-sensor confirmation, historical fingerprint matching, and differential diagnosis logic.

Persistence measures how long the abnormal condition has continued. This prevents short startup transients or one-off disturbances from unfairly reducing the Health Score.

P_i = 1 - e^(-t / tau)

Where t is abnormal duration and tau is the characteristic degradation time.

Exclusion logic removes impossible diagnoses. For example, if intake pressure is fluctuating, the pump is still rotating and interacting with fluid/gas, so a broken-shaft diagnosis can be excluded.

Recommended Domain Weighting

Domain	Weight
Surface Equipment / VSD	10%
Power Quality	10%
Cable / Surface Connection	10%
Motor	15%
Seal Section	15%
Pump	20%
Intake / Gas Handling	10%
Fluid / Tubing / Reservoir	10%

Domain Coverage

Domain	Signals and fault modes considered
Surface Equipment / VSD	VSD switching stress, inverter ringing, DC bus instability
Power Quality	Voltage THD, current THD, harmonic heating, PCC instability
Cable / Surface Connection	Cable splice degradation, partial discharge, leakage current
Motor	Rotor condition, slip behavior, torque oscillation, mechanical vibration
Seal Section	Thrust-bearing wear, seal temperature, water ingress, oil contamination
Pump	Efficiency degradation, BEP deviation, cavitation, scaling, rubbing
Intake / Gas Handling	Gas lock, intake-pressure oscillation, slugging behavior
Fluid / Tubing / Reservoir	Water cut, GOR trend, sand production, paraffin/asphaltene buildup

Score Bands

Health Score	Status	Interpretation
90-100	Excellent	System operating normally
75-89	Good	Minor degradation detected
60-74	Warning	Early failure indicators developing
40-59	Critical	Significant degradation detected
< 40	High Risk	Immediate intervention recommended

Operational Use

The Health Score should be read as a predictive-maintenance index, not as a single trip alarm. A falling score means degradation patterns are accumulating across the ESP system. Operators should open the contributing screens, review the AI diagnostic calls, and confirm whether the same pattern is visible in power quality, motor behavior, pump curves, well behavior, and event history.

65/100 Health Score Example

This worked example shows how ESP-GUARDX can calculate a warning-range Health Score when several moderate degradation mechanisms are developing at the same time. The example ends at 62.9/100, which appears on the dashboard as a warning-level score near 65.

The point of the example is not that the ESP has already failed. Production can still be continuing, but the combined evidence shows that the system is moving away from healthy operation.

Multi-Domain Risk Calculation

Each individual risk value is calculated as Severity x Confidence x Persistence. Domain total rows then apply the domain weighting factor to convert the summed domain risk into its final contribution to D_total.

Domain	Problem	Sev.	Conf.	Persist.	Risk
Surface	Mild VSD thermal stress	45	0.75	0.50	16.9
Surface	Minor inverter ringing	35	0.70	0.40	9.8
Surface Total	Domain contribution: 26.7 x 10%				2.7
Power	Moderate harmonic heating	50	0.80	0.60	24.0
Power Total	Domain contribution: 24.0 x 10%				2.4
Cable	Early cable insulation aging	40	0.65	0.50	13.0
Cable Total	Domain contribution: 13.0 x 10%				1.3
Motor	Current imbalance	50	0.85	0.70	29.8
Motor	Mild rotor asymmetry	40	0.70	0.60	16.8
Motor Total	Domain contribution: 46.6 x 15%				7.0
Seal	Early thrust-bearing wear	55	0.80	0.70	30.8
Seal	Minor oil contamination	35	0.60	0.50	10.5
Seal Total	Domain contribution: 41.3 x 15%				6.2
Pump	Moderate scaling	60	0.85	0.75	38.3
Pump	Efficiency degradation	50	0.90	0.70	31.5
Pump Total	Domain contribution: 69.8 x 20%				14.0
Intake	Intermittent gas lock	45	0.85	0.50	19.1
Intake Total	Domain contribution: 19.1 x 10%				1.9
Fluid	Early asphaltene deposition	40	0.65	0.60	15.6
Fluid Total	Domain contribution: 15.6 x 10%				1.6

Final Weighted Contributions

Domain	Weighted Contribution
Surface	2.7
Power	2.4
Cable	1.3
Motor	7.0
Seal	6.2
Pump	14.0
Intake	1.9
Fluid	1.6

D_total = 37.1
S_health = 100 - 37.1
S_health = 62.9

Dashboard Interpretation

Item	Interpretation
Status	Warning - developing degradation
Dashboard score	62.9 / 100
Main contributors	Pump scaling and efficiency loss, seal thrust-bearing wear, motor imbalance, moderate harmonic stress, early gas interference

Recommended Guard X Actions

Reduce operating frequency slightly toward BEP.
Monitor seal-section temperature trend.
Review harmonic filter and VSD switching behavior.
Schedule fluid treatment for scaling or asphaltene buildup.
Monitor gas-lock recurrence frequency.

Operational Meaning

This is a typical predictive-maintenance operating condition. The ESP system is still running and production can continue, but ESP-GUARDX has detected several degradation mechanisms developing simultaneously. This is the operating region where early intervention can reduce the chance of unplanned shutdown or an expensive workover.