Predictive Health Monitor

Early Detection Principle

Traditional ESP monitoring depends on reactive alarms. The system alerts the operator when a measurement such as motor temperature, vibration, pressure, current, or flow crosses a configured limit. At that point, the underlying condition may already have developed into equipment stress or production loss.

ESP-GUARDX adds Early Fault Prediction by tracking relationships between multiple signals at the same time, including current, flow, pressure, temperature, and vibration. Developing mechanical and electrical faults usually create repeatable trend patterns before a hard alarm occurs. The health monitor uses those patterns to flag early risk and support preventive action.

How the Logic Predicts Failures

The predictive logic uses a structured three-step process based on Differential Diagnosis.

1. Detecting the "Triggers" (Primary Features)

The system continuously compares real-time sensor data against the pump's "healthy" baseline, calculating exact percentage changes. If it detects a specific anomaly — for example, Motor Amps slowly creeping up while Surface Flow slowly drops — it immediately flags a primary trigger.

2. Seeking "Confirmers" (Secondary Features)

To prevent false alarms, the AI never relies on just one symptom. Once a trigger is found, the AI scans secondary sensors to confirm its suspicion.

Example: If the AI suspects the pump is suffering from Scale Buildup (due to the Amp/Flow trigger), it will check the Pump Intake Pressure (PIP). If PIP is normal but discharge pressure is dropping, the AI's confidence in Scaling reaches 90%.

3. Ruling Out the Impossible (Exclusion Logic)

Many ESP failures look similar at first glance. A broken shaft and severe gas lock can both cause motor current to drop suddenly.

To solve this, the AI uses physical exclusion rules. If the system sees that Pump Intake Pressure is heavily fluctuating, it knows the pump is still spinning and interacting with gas. Therefore, it mathematically forces the probability of a "Broken Shaft" to 0%, completely eliminating false alarms and isolating the true root cause: Gas Lock.

Health Score Output

The same diagnostic logic feeds the dashboard Health Score. The score is calculated as a weighted degradation index across surface equipment, power quality, cable condition, motor behavior, seal section, pump hydraulics, intake/gas behavior, and fluid/reservoir trends.

For the full formula, domain weighting, and worked 65/100 warning-range case, see Health Score Calculation Logic.

Guard X Autonomous Action

The operational goal is to prevent a predicted condition from becoming an equipment-damaging event. Guard X Autonomous Action describes the control logic that can turn predictive insights into corrective recommendations, operator-approved actions, or closed-loop actions where the site has been configured to allow them.

The action level depends on the installation. Some sites may use the output as an advisory workflow only; others may permit Guard X to request or execute selected VSD changes through the control system. Any autonomous action should remain inside the configured operating limits, event thresholds, and local safety procedures.

If Guard X predicts Asphaltene Deposition

Before buildup becomes critical, Guard X can raise a corrective-action recommendation for chemical treatment, solvent circulation, or operating-point adjustment. ESP-GUARDX does not perform chemical injection by itself; if the site has a separate chemical-injection system connected through an approved control interface, Guard X can help by sending or mapping the recommendation to that external system. Otherwise, it remains an operator task.

If Guard X predicts Downthrust Wear

When the pump is operating too far left of its Best Efficiency Point (BEP), Guard X can recommend a VSD frequency adjustment to bring the pump back toward the safe operating region. In closed-loop deployments, this may be executed as a bounded frequency change rather than an unrestricted automatic adjustment.

If Guard X predicts Gas Lock

When gas-lock symptoms appear, Guard X can recommend a gas-clearing routine such as a controlled VSD frequency modulation. If enabled by the site configuration, that routine can be issued through the control system to help the pump digest the gas slug and re-establish normal flow.

Operator Check Before Action

Before accepting or enabling an action, confirm:

Check	Why it matters
The diagnosis matches the live trend	Similar symptoms can come from different root causes.
The suggested action stays inside limits	Frequency, current, pressure, and temperature limits must remain protected.
The required interface exists	Chemical injection and VSD commands require site-specific integration.
The operator has authority to apply it	Autonomous behavior should match local operating procedures.